{"id":995,"date":"2026-07-15T17:43:27","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T17:43:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundavia.com\/uncategorized\/capital-markets\/"},"modified":"2026-07-15T17:43:27","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T17:43:27","slug":"capital-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundavia.com\/pl\/asset-management\/portfolio-construction\/capital-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets Are Pricing Relief While Regulators See Fragility"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1080\" height=\"713\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundavia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/fundavia_image_20260715_926c34.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-994\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundavia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/fundavia_image_20260715_926c34.jpg 1080w, https:\/\/www.fundavia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/fundavia_image_20260715_926c34-300x198.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.fundavia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/fundavia_image_20260715_926c34-1024x676.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.fundavia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/fundavia_image_20260715_926c34-768x507.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.fundavia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/fundavia_image_20260715_926c34-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1080px) 100vw, 1080px\" \/>\n<figcaption><em>Photo by Zoshua Colah (@zoshuacolah) on Unsplash<\/em><\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<style>body.single-post .cm-featured-image { display: none !important; }<\/style>\n\n\n\n    <meta charset=\"UTF-8\">\n    <meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\">\n    <title>Capital Markets in the EU: Trends and Future Outlook<\/title><p data-start=\"61\" data-end=\"410\" class=\"PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer\">The Dow Jones reached a record high after the proposed peace agreement between the United States and Iran, the S&amp;P 500 continued its double-digit advance for the year and Wall Street analysts raised their targets again. At the same time, European regulators warned that markets may still be underestimating the economic consequences of the conflict.<span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"PDq2pG_selectionAnchor\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"412\" data-end=\"834\">Both views can be rational. Corporate earnings have remained stronger than expected, the prospect of renewed oil exports has eased immediate inflation fears and artificial intelligence investment continues to support profits across several sectors. Yet asset prices are also relying on a rapid normalisation of energy markets, limited damage to global growth and the assumption that political shocks will remain temporary.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"836\" data-end=\"1001\">That leaves investors facing a market whose optimism is supported by genuine earnings momentum, but whose valuations offer little room for a less favourable outcome.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1qxog1p\" data-start=\"1003\" data-end=\"1054\">Strong Earnings Are Supporting Higher Valuations<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1056\" data-end=\"1108\">The bullish case rests primarily on company profits.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1110\" data-end=\"1354\">The S&amp;P 500 has risen by roughly 10 per cent since the beginning of the year, despite the disruption caused by the war with Iran. After a strong first-quarter reporting season, several prominent analysts increased their forecasts for the index.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1356\" data-end=\"1650\">Goldman Sachs raised its target from 7,600 to 8,000 points, while Citi moved from 7,700 to 8,100. Independent strategist Ed Yardeni adopted an even more optimistic year-end target of 8,250, implying a further gain of around 10 per cent from the level prevailing when the forecast was published.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1652\" data-end=\"1959\">The upgrades were not based solely on improving sentiment. An unusually high proportion of companies exceeded analysts\u2019 expectations during the first quarter. Profit growth was also sufficiently broad to weaken the argument that market performance depends entirely on a small group of technology businesses.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1961\" data-end=\"2389\">Artificial intelligence remains an important component of the earnings story, although its influence is spreading beyond the most visible software and semiconductor names. Companies in several industries are using AI to reduce operating costs, improve productivity and strengthen margins. Investors are therefore paying for the prospect that corporate profits can continue to outperform even if economic growth remains moderate.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2391\" data-end=\"2621\">The argument has shifted from fear of missing out to confidence in earnings delivery. That distinction matters because a rally driven by rising profits is more defensible than one supported mainly by expanding valuation multiples.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2623\" data-end=\"2682\">It does not, however, eliminate the risk of disappointment.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"tjbgo\" data-start=\"2684\" data-end=\"2740\">Peace Expectations Have Moved Faster Than The Economy<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2742\" data-end=\"3016\">The proposed agreement between the United States and Iran encouraged investors to price a relatively orderly de-escalation. Equity markets rose, inflation expectations eased and the possibility of renewed oil exports offered hope that the energy shock would prove temporary.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3018\" data-end=\"3199\">Financial markets can respond to political announcements within minutes. Repairing production capacity, rebuilding reserves and restoring transport routes takes considerably longer.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3201\" data-end=\"3595\">Energy infrastructure in the region has been damaged or taken out of service, while oil reserves have declined. Even if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes without further disruption, the supply response may require months rather than weeks. A political agreement can reduce the probability of further escalation without immediately reversing the economic consequences of the conflict.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3597\" data-end=\"3908\">This gap between diplomatic progress and physical recovery is central to the current market debate. Equity prices increasingly reflect the expectation that the worst effects will fade. Central bankers remain concerned that higher energy costs may continue to influence inflation, production and consumer demand.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3910\" data-end=\"4175\">The eurozone inflation rate reached 3.2 per cent in May, moving further away from the European Central Bank\u2019s two per cent target. The ECB responded by raising interest rates for the first time in three years, and investors expect that further increases may follow.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4177\" data-end=\"4501\">The United States faces a different monetary-policy calculation. Lower oil prices could allow the Federal Reserve to keep rates stable, supporting both economic activity and asset valuations. A slower-than-expected normalisation of energy supply would complicate that outlook and could delay any prospect of monetary easing.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4503\" data-end=\"4704\">Markets are therefore trading on more than the success of a peace agreement. They are trading on the speed with which geopolitical relief reaches inflation data, corporate costs and household spending.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"j5npoa\" data-start=\"4706\" data-end=\"4746\">High Valuations Leave Less Protection<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"4748\" data-end=\"4992\">European financial authorities have become increasingly direct in their warnings. Capital-market valuations appear stretched by historical standards, while the underlying economic environment has not improved to the same extent as share prices.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4994\" data-end=\"5295\">That imbalance does not mean a correction is inevitable. Expensive markets can remain expensive when profits continue to rise and liquidity remains supportive. The vulnerability appears when investors are positioned around the same assumptions and react together when those assumptions are challenged.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5297\" data-end=\"5678\">German financial supervisor Mark Branson has described a market increasingly divided between two modes: \u201crisk-on\u201d and \u201crisk-off\u201d, with limited differentiation in between. This behaviour can produce rapid moves across assets because investors are no longer evaluating every company, country or credit on its individual merits. They are responding to a broad shift in perceived risk.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5680\" data-end=\"5970\">The belief that political turbulence will always be reversible adds another layer of complacency. Recent market experience has often rewarded investors for buying after shocks, encouraging the expectation that disruption will be contained and policy authorities will prevent lasting damage.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5972\" data-end=\"6244\">Such confidence can become destabilising when it is shared too widely. A disappointing inflation report, a renewed geopolitical escalation or weaker earnings guidance could trigger a sharp repricing because valuations have already absorbed much of the favourable scenario.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6246\" data-end=\"6381\">The key risk is not simply that markets are high. It is that the distance between current prices and investor assumptions has narrowed.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"mdgtyj\" data-start=\"6383\" data-end=\"6442\">Private Credit Is Becoming A Test Of Financial Stability<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"6444\" data-end=\"6513\">The most important risks may not be visible in public equity indices.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6515\" data-end=\"6761\">Private credit has grown into a global market estimated at between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion by the end of 2024. Funds raise capital from investors and lend it directly to businesses, offering financing outside the traditional banking system.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6763\" data-end=\"7066\">The model has expanded partly because banks became more selective after the financial crisis and tighter regulation made some forms of lending less attractive. For companies, private credit can offer flexibility, speed and access to capital that may not be available through bonds or conventional loans.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"7068\" data-end=\"7210\">Its rapid growth has also created a large pool of assets that are less transparent and less frequently valued than publicly traded securities.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"7212\" data-end=\"7542\">Concerns have intensified as investors withdraw money from some funds. Several private-credit managers have reduced asset valuations, restricted distributions or suspended them entirely. These actions do not necessarily signal a systemic crisis; illiquid funds are designed to prevent forced selling when redemption requests rise.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"7544\" data-end=\"7726\">The uncertainty lies in how widely credit quality has deteriorated and how strongly funds are connected to banks, insurers, pension investors and other parts of the financial system.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"7728\" data-end=\"8025\">Private assets can appear stable because they are not repriced every day. That stability may reflect the absence of continuous market trading rather than the absence of losses. When valuations are eventually adjusted, the correction can arrive with a delay and affect several institutions at once.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"8027\" data-end=\"8399\">Private credit is not inherently dangerous, nor is its growth automatically evidence of a bubble. It has widened the financing options available to companies and become an established part of modern capital markets. Regulators are watching for concentration, liquidity mismatches and the possibility that problems in a group of funds could spread through the wider system.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"8401\" data-end=\"8617\">For investors, the lesson is to examine more than headline returns. Underwriting standards, borrower quality, leverage, valuation methods and redemption terms are becoming increasingly important as the cycle matures.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1hpch5w\" data-start=\"8619\" data-end=\"8670\">AI Creates A Second Financial-Stability Question<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"8672\" data-end=\"8798\">Artificial intelligence is supporting company profits, but it is also increasing operational risk within the financial system.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"8800\" data-end=\"9077\">Advanced models can help banks, asset managers and market operators identify threats, detect suspicious activity and strengthen cyber defences. The same capabilities can be used to discover vulnerabilities, automate attacks and make malicious activity more difficult to detect.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"9079\" data-end=\"9470\">European financial companies have operated under the Digital Operational Resilience Act since the beginning of 2025. The framework requires institutions to improve technology governance, report dependencies on external providers and strengthen their ability to withstand cyber incidents. European supervisors are also overseeing 19 critical technology providers serving the financial sector.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"9472\" data-end=\"9784\">The regulation has raised the general standard of protection, but it cannot remove the possibility of a successful large-scale attack. The recent breach at V-Bank, Germany\u2019s largest custodian bank for independent asset managers, demonstrated that customer information and financial infrastructure remain exposed.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"9786\" data-end=\"10087\">Concentration presents a particular concern. Many financial institutions rely on the same cloud providers, software companies and data services. A disruption at one critical supplier can therefore affect several institutions simultaneously, turning an operational incident into a broader market event.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"10089\" data-end=\"10265\">Investors tend to treat cyber security as a company-specific governance matter. Its growing scale and interdependence increasingly justify viewing it as a macro-financial risk.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"ol9v36\" data-start=\"10267\" data-end=\"10334\">The Bull Market Has Evidence Behind It \u2014 And Conditions Attached<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"10336\" data-end=\"10642\">The current rally is not detached from fundamentals. Companies are delivering profits, AI investment is supporting productivity and a reduction in geopolitical tension could improve the inflation outlook. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundavia.com\/pl\/fundusze-inwestycyjne\/instrumenty-struktury-funduszy\/five-questions-founders-must-ask-before-choosing-an-advisor-2\/\">Analysts<\/a> raising their forecasts are responding to real financial results rather than optimism alone.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"10644\" data-end=\"10777\">Regulators are focused on a different part of the distribution: what happens if several favourable assumptions fail at the same time.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"10779\" data-end=\"11130\">A slower recovery in oil supply could keep inflation elevated. Higher interest rates could expose weaker borrowers. Redemptions from private-credit funds could reveal valuation problems. A major cyberattack could interrupt institutions that appear financially sound. Elevated equity valuations would amplify the market reaction to any of these events.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"11132\" data-end=\"11528\">Investors do not need to abandon equities because regulators are cautious, nor should record highs be interpreted as proof that the risks have passed. The practical response is greater selectivity: distinguishing earnings growth from multiple expansion, liquid assets from apparently stable ones and diversified portfolios from collections of positions that all depend on the same benign outcome.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"11530\" data-end=\"11716\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">The market has priced the possibility that the geopolitical shock is ending. It has not yet established how much of the economic damage will remain.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Capital markets in the EU play a pivotal role in the financial ecosystem, driving economic growth and investment opportunities. This article delves into the current landscape, key trends, and future outlook of these markets.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":994,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-portfolio-construction"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>capital markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Capital markets in the EU play a pivotal role in the financial ecosystem, driving economic growth and investment opportunities. 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